000 WTPA43 PHFO 110848 TCDCP3 Hurricane Henriette Discussion Number 29 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082025 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 10 2025 The satellite presentation of Henriette had degraded earlier this evening, perhaps due to what appeared to be an eye wall replacement cycle, while the cyclone was also passing over a tongue of slightly cooler sea surface temperatures around 25.5C. Recent satellite images however depict the eye becoming better defined and surrounded by cooling cloud tops. The most recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates were 4.0/65 kt from PHFO and SAB, and 4.5/77 kt from JTWC. Meanwhile, the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged between 65 and 76 kt during the past several hours. Taking a blend of these estimates, the initial intensity has been held at 70 kt for this advisory. Henriette is moving toward the northwest, or 315 degrees, at 15 kt. This general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days as the cyclone is steered between a mid-level low to the northwest of Hawaii and a building mid-level ridge far to the north of the cyclone. A turn toward the north and a decrease in forward speed is expected beyond 60 hours as the increasingly shallow system is steered by a low to mid-level ridge to the east. The official track forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope and is very close to the previous advisory. Henriette will remain over sufficiently warm water for some intensification during the next day or so, however, vertical wind shear is forecast to increase considerably by about 36 hours. As a result, the official forecast calls for some strengthening during the next 24 hours, followed by slight weakening between 24 and 36 hours, and more rapid weakening thereafter. Henriette is expected to weaken into a post-tropical low by 72 hours, with dissipation expected by 120 hours. The intensity forecast is mostly unchanged and is slightly higher than the intensity guidance in the near term, then close to the middle of the intensity guidance envelope beyond 36 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 27.6N 155.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 29.2N 157.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 31.4N 159.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 33.5N 162.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 35.5N 165.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 13/1800Z 37.4N 167.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 14/0600Z 39.6N 169.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0600Z 42.6N 171.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)
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