Hurricane Gilma Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 212039
TCDEP2

Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072024
200 PM PDT Wed Aug 21 2024

Gilma's satellite presentation has improved significantly over the 
past three hours as a clear eye has appeared in visible imagery, and 
the latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB 
were both T5.0/90-kt. Using these estimates Gilma's initial 
intensity is set to 90 kt for this advisory, which represents an 
increase of 30-kt over the past 24 hours, meeting the criteria of 
rapid intensification.

Gilma is moving more west-northwestward this afternoon, estimated at 
285/6 kt. Over the next few days, a large subtropical ridge poleward 
of the hurricane should continue to steer it generally westward to 
west-northwestward. The latest track guidance has shifted slightly 
poleward, reversing the trend of the previous few cycles, possibly 
due to the more northern short-term motion as the hurricane's 
inner-core has become established. The latest NHC track was shifted 
slightly in that direction of the consensus track aids, blending 
them with the prior track forecast. 

Given the improvements to the inner core, Gilma is expected to 
steadily strengthen over the next day. The NHC intensity forecast 
now shows strengthening to a Category 4 hurricane in 24 h, which is 
in agreement with the latest HCCA consensus aid and still slightly 
below some of the hurricane-regional models (e.g. HAFS-A and 
HAFS-B). After 48 h, sea-surface temperatures begin to gradually 
decrease, and slow weakening is still expected to begin at that 
time, though a little less than the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 16.3N 123.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 16.6N 124.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 16.9N 125.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 17.1N 126.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  23/1800Z 17.4N 127.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 60H  24/0600Z 17.6N 129.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  24/1800Z 17.7N 131.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  25/1800Z 18.0N 134.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  26/1800Z 18.5N 138.6W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Alaka/Papin