525 WTPZ42 KNHC 250001 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Special Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 200 PM HST Sat Aug 24 2024 Gilma has continued to exhibit a solid inner core on infrared imagery this afternoon. The eye has become more defined on visible satellite imagery and has started to clear out. Recent microwave imagery further confirmed that the structure of Gilma has improved with a vertically aligned center and a well-established eye wall. Satellite intensity estimates have continued to rise with objective estimates now between 100-110 kt. Thus, the initial intensity is set to 105 kt for this special advisory, and Gilma has regained major hurricane strength as a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale. The initial motion remains 275/8 kt. A mid-level ridge is forecast to gradually build to the north of Gilma during the next several days, and this should steer the cyclone on a generally westward, or just north of westward, track through the forecast period. The NHC track has not changed with this special advisory forecast. The intensity forecast has had some significant changes compared to the previous advisory in the short term, given the initial intensity being increased, and the new NHC forecast calls for some additional strengthening in the near term. Beyond 12 h gradual then steady weakening is forecast to occur as Gilma moves over cooler sea surface temperatures and into a drier more stable airmass. The system is still forecast to become a remnant low in 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0000Z 17.7N 131.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 17.8N 132.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 18.0N 133.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 18.2N 135.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 18.4N 137.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 27/0600Z 18.6N 139.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 18.9N 141.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 19.5N 145.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 20.2N 150.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kelly
Hurricane Gilma Forecast Discussion
24
Aug