Hurricane Gilma Forecast Advisory

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 220231
TCMEP2

HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072024
0300 UTC THU AUG 22 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 123.8W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  968 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 110SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 180SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 123.8W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 123.5W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.8N 124.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  25SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE 100SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.1N 125.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  35NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.3N 127.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 17.5N 128.7W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.8N 130.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 18.0N 132.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 18.5N 135.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  50SW  80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 19.1N 140.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 123.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY