000 WTPZ42 KNHC 020834 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gil Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 1100 PM HST Fri Aug 01 2025 Gil has likely reached its peak intensity. Satellite imagery shows convection in the northwestern quadrant has mostly eroded, likely due to dry air entrainment and the system now moving over marginal sea surface temperatures below 26 degrees C. However, the cyclone still displays impressive banding features wrapping around its southern and eastern sides. Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain steady at 4.0/65 kt, consistent with objective satellite estimates ranging from 50 to 70 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is held at 65 kt. The initial motion is estimated at 300/17 kt, steered by a strong mid-level ridge to its north. This general motion is expected to continue into Sunday, followed by a gradual turn toward the west as the cyclone weakens and becomes increasingly steered by the low-level flow. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one and remains close to the consensus aids. Gil is expected to begin weakening through the day Saturday as it continues moving over progressively cooler waters and encounters increasingly dry and stable mid-level air. These unfavorable conditions should lead to a gradual erosion of the cyclone’s convective structure. Simulated satellite imagery from global models suggests that Gil will lose its deep convection and become post-tropical by Sunday, or in about 36 hours. The system is then forecast to gradually spin down and dissipate by day 5, in line with the majority of the global model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 17.4N 126.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 18.4N 129.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 19.9N 132.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 21.1N 135.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 04/0600Z 22.0N 138.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 04/1800Z 22.5N 140.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 05/0600Z 22.9N 142.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0600Z 23.5N 147.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
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