Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Frank Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ42 KNHC 300851
TCDEP2

Hurricane Frank Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072022
200 AM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022

Frank has continued to intensify since the previous advisory, with 
very cold cloud tops noted over the eastern and southern portions 
of the circulation.  An eye has been occasionally present in the 
geostationary images.  Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from 
SAB and TAFB are 90 kt and 77 kt respectively, and the advisory 
intensity is set at 80 kt.  Frank has an expansive, well-defined 
upper-level outflow pattern.

Microwave images suggest that the hurricane is beginning to 
establish a better-defined inner core.  This indicates that rapid 
intensification (RI) is possible today.  The various objective 
indices show a 40 to 50 percent chance of RI during the next 12-24 
h.  Thus Frank could become a major hurricane soon and this is 
reflected in the latest NHC forecast.  Frank's strengthening is 
likely to be rather short-lived however, since the hurricane will 
be traversing significantly cooler waters within 48 hours.  By 96 
hours, the cyclone should be over 21 deg C SSTs so the forecast 
shows Frank degenerating into a remnant low by that time.  Around 
the end of the forecast period, the GFS model shows some 
rejuvenation of convection as the post-tropical cyclone interacts 
with an upper-level trough to its northwest.

The hurricane is moving northwestward, or 310/10 kt.  The steering 
scenario appears to be fairly straightforward.  Frank should 
continue on a northwestward track for most of the forecast period 
while it moves along the southwestern periphery of a large 
mid-level ridge.  The official track forecast has been nudged 
a little to the north of the previous one mainly because of a 
slight northward shift in the short-term track. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0900Z 15.9N 115.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 16.9N 116.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  31/0600Z 18.2N 118.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  31/1800Z 19.5N 119.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  01/0600Z 20.9N 121.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  01/1800Z 22.3N 122.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  02/0600Z 23.4N 124.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  03/0600Z 25.5N 126.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  04/0600Z 28.0N 128.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch



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