Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Frank Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ42 KNHC 312041
TCDEP2

Hurricane Frank Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072022
200 PM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022

The satellite presentation of Frank has gradually degraded today 
with an erosion of deep convection over the western semicircle and 
a general warming of cloud top temperatures elsewhere. An eye was 
still evident in earlier microwave imagery, but it was open to the 
south. Subjective Dvorak T-numbers have decreased, and a blend of 
the latest CI-numbers yields an initial wind speed estimate of 70 
kt. 

Frank will be moving over progressively cooler waters and into a 
more stable air mass over the next several days.  As a result, 
steady weakening should continue with Frank becoming a 
post-tropical cyclone late Tuesday.  This is consistent with the GFS 
and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery which show little, if any, 
remaining deep convection by that time. The official forecast calls 
for the remnant low to dissipate by the end of the period which is 
also supported by the dynamical model guidance.  

Frank is moving northwestward or 320/10 kt. There is no change to 
the track forecast reasoning.  The cyclone should continue 
northwestward around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge 
during the next couple of days.  Once the cyclone becomes weaker 
and more vertically shallow, a slower northward motion is 
predicted. The new NHC track forecast is essentially an update 
of the previous advisory, and it remains near the center of the 
guidance envelope. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/2100Z 20.1N 120.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 21.3N 121.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 22.9N 122.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 24.5N 124.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 26.2N 125.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  03/0600Z 27.9N 126.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  03/1800Z 29.5N 126.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  04/1800Z 32.6N 126.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown



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