Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Frank Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ42 KNHC 311439
TCDEP2

Hurricane Frank Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072022
800 AM PDT Sun Jul 31 2022

An 0933 UTC AMSR2 microwave overpass revealed the fragments of a 
small inner eye and a much larger 60 to 75 n-mi-wide eye. Since that 
time, the cloud tops have generally warmed with a small CDO feature 
remaining.  Frank's outflow is still well established owing to the 
low vertical wind shear conditions. Objective and subjective Dvorak 
intensity estimates range between 65 and 77 kt, so the initial 
intensity has been lowered to 75 kt for this advisory.

Frank has crossed the 26 degree Celsius isotherm and will be moving 
over progressively cooler waters during the next few days.  In 
addition, the storm will be entering a drier and more stable 
environment.  Thus, steady weakening is expected, and Frank is 
forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone within 72 hours, and 
dissipate by the end of the period. The NHC intensity forecast 
follows the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids closely and is essentially 
an update of the previous advisory.

Frank is moving northwestward or 315/10 kt.  The cyclone should move 
on a general northwestward track over the next couple of days around 
the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge.  After that time, a 
weaker and more shallow system is predicted to decelerate and turn 
north-northwest to northward within the low-level flow. The updated 
NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the latest consensus 
models and is very close to the previous official forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/1500Z 19.3N 119.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 20.4N 120.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z 21.9N 121.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 23.5N 123.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z 25.2N 124.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  03/0000Z 27.0N 125.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  03/1200Z 28.7N 126.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  04/1200Z 31.8N 126.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown



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