Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Frank Forecast Discussion


628 
WTPZ42 KNHC 301436
TCDEP2

Hurricane Frank Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072022
800 AM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022

Frank has changed little in organization since the last advisory.  
The hurricane continues to produce bands of cold deep convection 
near the center, but an eye is not currently apparent.  Since the 
various satellite intensity estimates are also basically unchanged, 
the initial intensity remains set at 80 kt.  The hurricane 
continues to have excellent cirrus outflow in all directions 
except the southwest.

Frank is running out of time to intensify, as it is now passing 
over the 28C sea surface temperature isotherm and will reach waters 
of 26C in about 24 h.  The guidance indicates that some 
strengthening is possible during the next 12 h, although the chances 
of rapid intensification have diminished.  Thus, the intensity 
forecast now calls for a 90-kt peak intensity in 12 h, which is at 
the upper edge of the guidance.  After 24 h, the cyclone should 
move over progressively cooler water, reaching 21C SSTs in about  
96 h.  This should lead to a steady weakening, and Frank is 
expected to degenerate to a remnant low by 96 h.  It should be noted 
that near the end of the forecast period, the GFS model shows some
rejuvenation of convection as the post-tropical cyclone interacts
with an upper-level trough to its northwest.

Frank continues moving northwestward or 310/10 kt, and there is 
little change to the track forecast scenario.  The cyclone should
continue on a northwestward track for most of the forecast period
while it moves along the southwestern periphery of a large
mid-level ridge toward a developing break in the ridge west of 
California. The track guidance shifted a little to the north and 
east at 96 and 120 h, and thus the new forecast track is also 
nudged in that direction at those times.  Otherwise, it is an 
update of the previous forecast and lies close to the consensus 
models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 16.6N 116.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  31/0000Z 17.6N 117.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  31/1200Z 18.9N 119.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 20.1N 120.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  01/1200Z 21.4N 121.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  02/0000Z 22.7N 123.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  02/1200Z 24.0N 124.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  03/1200Z 26.6N 127.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  04/1200Z 28.6N 128.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven




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