000 WTPZ42 KNHC 300851 TCDEP2 Hurricane Frank Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022 Frank has continued to intensify since the previous advisory, with very cold cloud tops noted over the eastern and southern portions of the circulation. An eye has been occasionally present in the geostationary images. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB are 90 kt and 77 kt respectively, and the advisory intensity is set at 80 kt. Frank has an expansive, well-defined upper-level outflow pattern. Microwave images suggest that the hurricane is beginning to establish a better-defined inner core. This indicates that rapid intensification (RI) is possible today. The various objective indices show a 40 to 50 percent chance of RI during the next 12-24 h. Thus Frank could become a major hurricane soon and this is reflected in the latest NHC forecast. Frank's strengthening is likely to be rather short-lived however, since the hurricane will be traversing significantly cooler waters within 48 hours. By 96 hours, the cyclone should be over 21 deg C SSTs so the forecast shows Frank degenerating into a remnant low by that time. Around the end of the forecast period, the GFS model shows some rejuvenation of convection as the post-tropical cyclone interacts with an upper-level trough to its northwest. The hurricane is moving northwestward, or 310/10 kt. The steering scenario appears to be fairly straightforward. Frank should continue on a northwestward track for most of the forecast period while it moves along the southwestern periphery of a large mid-level ridge. The official track forecast has been nudged a little to the north of the previous one mainly because of a slight northward shift in the short-term track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 15.9N 115.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 16.9N 116.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 31/0600Z 18.2N 118.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 31/1800Z 19.5N 119.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 20.9N 121.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 01/1800Z 22.3N 122.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 23.4N 124.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 25.5N 126.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 04/0600Z 28.0N 128.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch