Hurricane Francine Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT41 KNHC 110232
TCDAT1

Hurricane Francine Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062024
1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been
investigating Francine tonight, and the data they collected were the
basis for upgrading it to a hurricane a few hours ago.  The
maximum 700 mb flight-level wind measured was 76 kt, which supports
an intensity of about 65 kt.  The aircraft data also indicated that
the minimum pressure has fallen several millibars to 980 mb.  Deep
convection has been increasing near the center, and radar images
indicate that an inner core has developed.  There is still some dry
air, however, outside of the core region.

Francine is starting to move a little faster to the northeast, with 
the latest initial motion estimated to be 035/9 kt.  A mid- to 
upper-level trough over Texas is approaching the hurricane, and that 
should cause it to accelerate northeastward toward the Louisiana 
coast, with landfall expected there late Wednesday afternoon or 
evening.  After Francine moves inland, a turn to the north-northeast 
and a decrease in forward speed is predicted while it moves across 
eastern Louisiana and Mississippi.  The models are in good 
agreement, and little change was made to the previous track 
forecast.

Now that Francine has a well organized core, significant
strengthening seems likely through Wednesday morning while the
system remains over very warm waters and in low wind shear
conditions.  The hurricane regional models are quite aggressive and
show Francine strengthening quickly, while the dynamical-statistical
models show much less intensification.  The NHC intensity forecast
is between those solutions and continues to show Francine nearing
category 2 strength Wednesday morning. A notable increase in shear
and intrusions of dry air should end the opportunity for
strengthening just before Francine reaches the coast. Rapid
weakening is expected after the cyclone moves inland.

An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on
the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch
and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be
available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available,
the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above
the operational cone graphic at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are
encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the
experimental cone.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge on
Wednesday for the Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines, where a
Storm Surge Warning is in effect.  Residents in the warning area
should follow advice, including evacuation orders, given by local
officials.

2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected
in portions of southern Louisiana on Wednesday, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property
should be complete, since tropical storm conditions are expected to
begin within this area early Wednesday.

3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of
considerable flash and urban flooding across eastern Louisiana,
Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle
through Thursday.  Flash and urban flooding is probable across the
Lower Tennessee Valley and Lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday night
into Friday morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0300Z 26.4N  94.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 27.7N  93.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  12/0000Z 29.7N  91.4W   80 KT  90 MPH...INLAND
 36H  12/1200Z 32.0N  90.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 48H  13/0000Z 34.2N  89.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 60H  13/1200Z 35.5N  89.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  14/0000Z 36.3N  89.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Hagen