854 WTPZ31 KNHC 170236 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Estelle Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 ...ESTELLE INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY TO A HURRICANE... ...RAPID INTENSIFICATION FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 105.0W ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Estelle was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 105.0 West. Estelle is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A west-northwestward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected through Tuesday. Estelle is rapidly intensifying, and maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued rapid intensification is likely through Sunday, and Estelle is forecast to become a major hurricane by Sunday night. Some weakening is expected to begin on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Estelle are affecting portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula on Sunday and Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg