Pacific Hurricane Feed

Hurricane Estelle Forecast Discussion

WTPZ41 KNHC 170237

Hurricane Estelle Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062022
1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022

After taking a breather this afternoon, Estelle's inner-core
convection came back with a vengeance as a burst began around 2100
UTC and continued to organize around the center through the evening.
There have been no microwave images since this morning to help
assess the cyclone's structure, but the 00 UTC Dvorak fix from TAFB 
and the UW-CIMSS ADT support Estelle's upgrade to a hurricane.  The 
ADT ticked up a bit since then with a warm spot developing within 
the Central Dense Overcast, so the advisory intensity is set at 70 
kt.  Either way, Estelle has rapidly intensified by at least 30 kt 
over the past 24 hours.

Continued rapid intensification (RI) appears likely during the next
24 hours while Estelle moves over very warm waters of 29-30 degrees
Celsius and benefits from high values of upper-level divergence
and generally low shear.  The conventional RI and DTOPS indices from
the GFS and ECWMF versions of SHIPS are still quite high, ranging
from a 50 to 75 percent chance of another 30-kt increase in
intensity over the next 24 hours.  As a result, the NHC intensity
forecast is near the top end of the guidance and explicit shows
RI, with Estelle expected to reach a peak intensity of 100 kt as
a major hurricane by 36 hours.  Intensification is likely to level
off around that time as environmental conditions become a little
less ideal, and Estelle is expected to begin weakening over colder
waters by day 3.  The NHC forecast remains near the upper end of
the guidance during Estelle's expected weakening phase.

The current motion remains west-northwestward at 295/8 kt.  A
mid-level ridge located over the southwestern United States is
expected to strengthen and expand westward over the Pacific Ocean
in the coming days, which should continue steering Estelle toward
the west-northwest at a slightly faster pace.  The track guidance
remains tightly clustered, and the only notable update in this NHC
forecast is that it's a little faster than the afternoon forecast
in order to be more in line with the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids,
as well as the ECWMF solution.


INIT  17/0300Z 14.7N 105.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 15.2N 106.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 15.9N 108.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  18/1200Z 16.6N 110.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  19/0000Z 17.0N 112.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  19/1200Z 17.5N 115.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  20/0000Z 18.3N 117.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  21/0000Z 20.4N 122.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  22/0000Z 22.3N 126.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

Forecaster Berg

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