Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Estelle Forecast Discussion


638 
WTPZ41 KNHC 181447
TCDEP1

Hurricane Estelle Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062022
900 AM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022

Estelle is beginning to look a little better organized based on 
satellite imagery.  First-light visible pictures show the center 
of the cyclone is now embedded in the central dense overcast.  
Observations from Socorro Island confirm that they are within the 
estimated tropical-storm-force radii.  Subjective Dvorak 
classifications from TAFB and SAB range from 77 kt to 65 kt, 
respectively.  The initial intensity is held at 70 kt, representing 
a blend of these estimates.

Low to moderate northerly wind shear is expected to limit the future 
strengthening of the system in the next day or so.  However, warm 
sea surface temperatures and plenty of near-storm environmental 
moisture may allow for some slight intensification within a day.  
Beyond 36 hours, Estelle should cross the 26 degrees C sea surface 
isotherm and move over increasingly colder waters.  This and the 
drier surrounding environment should cause the hurricane to weaken 
to a remnant low by the weekend.  The official forecast is slightly 
higher than the model guidance in the short term forecast and then 
follows the multi-model consensus guidance after 36 hours.

The hurricane is moving west-northwest at about 12 kt.  This 
general motion is predicted to continue for the next few days as 
Estelle is steered by a mid-level ridge to its north.  Later in the 
forecast period, low-level trade winds should turn the weaker 
system westward.  The NHC track forecast is nearly identical to the 
previous advisory and only slightly north of the model consensus 
guidance, TVCE.

Estelle is expected to continue producing rough surf and rip current
conditions along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
as well as the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula during
the next day or so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 18.0N 111.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 18.3N 112.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 18.8N 115.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  20/0000Z 19.4N 117.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  20/1200Z 20.3N 119.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  21/0000Z 21.2N 122.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  21/1200Z 22.1N 123.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  22/1200Z 23.2N 127.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  23/1200Z 23.5N 130.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci




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