638 WTPZ41 KNHC 181447 TCDEP1 Hurricane Estelle Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 900 AM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022 Estelle is beginning to look a little better organized based on satellite imagery. First-light visible pictures show the center of the cyclone is now embedded in the central dense overcast. Observations from Socorro Island confirm that they are within the estimated tropical-storm-force radii. Subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB range from 77 kt to 65 kt, respectively. The initial intensity is held at 70 kt, representing a blend of these estimates. Low to moderate northerly wind shear is expected to limit the future strengthening of the system in the next day or so. However, warm sea surface temperatures and plenty of near-storm environmental moisture may allow for some slight intensification within a day. Beyond 36 hours, Estelle should cross the 26 degrees C sea surface isotherm and move over increasingly colder waters. This and the drier surrounding environment should cause the hurricane to weaken to a remnant low by the weekend. The official forecast is slightly higher than the model guidance in the short term forecast and then follows the multi-model consensus guidance after 36 hours. The hurricane is moving west-northwest at about 12 kt. This general motion is predicted to continue for the next few days as Estelle is steered by a mid-level ridge to its north. Later in the forecast period, low-level trade winds should turn the weaker system westward. The NHC track forecast is nearly identical to the previous advisory and only slightly north of the model consensus guidance, TVCE. Estelle is expected to continue producing rough surf and rip current conditions along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico as well as the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula during the next day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 18.0N 111.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 18.3N 112.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 18.8N 115.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 19.4N 117.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 20.3N 119.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 21/0000Z 21.2N 122.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 22.1N 123.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 23.2N 127.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/1200Z 23.5N 130.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci