319 WTPZ41 KNHC 180832 TCDEP1 Hurricane Estelle Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 300 AM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022 Estelle has generally changed little during the past several hours, but the hurricane is less organized than it was 24 hours ago. The system continues to produce a concentrated area of deep convection, but a recent GMI microwave pass showed that northerly shear is causing a significant asymmetry in the storm's structure. The center is located near the northern edge of the convection and banding features are mostly confined to the south of the center. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from 55 to 77 kt, and the initial intensity is held at 70 kt for this advisory. An ASCAT pass from around 05Z indicated that the 34- and 50-kt wind radii were larger than previously estimated. The hurricane is expected to remain over warm water for another 24-36 hours, but north to northeasterly shear of 10-15 kt is expected to persist during that time period. Given the storm's current structure and continued shear, only a little strengthening seems possible during that time period. Beyond 36 hours, Estelle will be tracking over waters cooler than 26 C and into a drier and more stable air mass. These conditions should cause a steady weakening trend, and the system will likely become post-tropical in 3 to 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is again lower than the previous one and it lies at the high end of the guidance in the short term, but falls in line with the HCCA and IVCN consensus models after 36 hours. Estelle has been moving a little north of the previous forecast with the latest initial motion estimated to be 305/11 kt. The models show a mid-level ridge building westward to the north of Estelle, which should cause the system to move generally west-northwestward for the next several days. The NHC track forecast is a little to the north of the previous one, mostly based on the initial motion and position. Estelle is expected to continue producing rough surf and rip current conditions along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico as well as the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 17.5N 109.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 18.1N 111.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 18.5N 113.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 19.0N 116.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 19.8N 118.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 20/1800Z 20.7N 120.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 21.8N 122.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 23.1N 126.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 23/0600Z 23.7N 129.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi