000 WTPZ41 KNHC 180242 TCDEP1 Hurricane Estelle Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 900 PM MDT Sun Jul 17 2022 Estelle's structure this evening is quite disheveled, with last-light visible satellite imagery suggesting that the low-level center was somewhat detached north from the deeper convective activity that is more aligned with the mid-level center. We finally received our first microwave imagery over Estelle in more than 24 hours, an AMSR2 pass at 2013 UTC, which confirmed this structure, also indicating that the center had jogged a bit north of the previous forecast track. Subjective Dvorak satellite estimates at 0000 UTC from TAFB and SAB were still 77 kt and 65 kt respectively, but both SATCON and ADT estimates have dropped from earlier today. The initial intensity this advisory is set at 70 kt as a compromise from all these various estimates. Despite the earlier northward jog, Estelle remains on a general west-northwestward heading at 300/10 kt. A mid-level ridge is situated north of the cyclone, and is forecast to build-in further westward with time. The model guidance responds to this building ridge by maintaining Estelle on a similar heading, though with a short-term bend more westward and slight acceleration in the forward motion. The latest track forecast shows a similar evolution, though is on the north side of the guidance envelope early on, due to both the further north initial position, and the somewhat leftward bias observed in the track forecast over the past 24 hours. However, by the end of the forecast period, the current track forecast ends up located close to the multi-model consensus aid TVCE. The intensity forecast is a bit problematic. Estelle appears to have ingested dry air into its inner-core today, possibly assisted by moderate northerly vertical wind shear under the typical 200-850 mb layer. This shear may be a result of the current misaligned low and mid-level centers. This inner-core structure also argues against rapid intensification in the short-term. However, SHIPS environmental variables still show Estelle remaining over 28C or warmer sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) over the next 24-36 hours while embedded in a fairly moist mid-level environment. Assuming the current dry-air near the core can be mixed out and the moderate shear does not import additional dry air, intensification still appears possible. The latest intensity forecast now indicates a more gradual intensification rate, assuming it will take a little time for the current core structure to recover. This intensity forecast is still somewhat higher than the majority of the guidance. After 36 hours, Estelle will be crossing a sharp SST gradient, and be over sub 25C waters by 60 hours. Thus, weakening is anticipated and the latest forecast now makes Estelle post-tropical by 96 hours, which is a little faster than before. Estelle is expected to continue producing rough surf and rip current conditions along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico as well as the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 16.8N 108.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 17.2N 110.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 17.7N 112.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 18.1N 114.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 18.9N 117.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 20/1200Z 19.8N 119.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 20.8N 121.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 22/0000Z 22.0N 125.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 23/0000Z 23.0N 129.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Papin