000 WTPZ41 KNHC 172036 TCDEP1 Hurricane Estelle Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 300 PM MDT Sun Jul 17 2022 Estelle has changed little in organization since this morning. There is an apparent dry slot near the core of the circulation, which is possibly inhibiting further intensification for the time being. The anticyclonic outflow, banding features, and cold cloud tops remain intact, however. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are still 77 kt and 65 kt, respectively. Given no changes to these estimates and the overall satellite appearance, the initial intensity is kept at 75 kt. The cyclone is expected to be in an atmospheric and oceanic environment conducive for further strengthening during the next day or so. Statistical guidance still shows the possibility of rapid intensification in 24 hours and the official forecast remains above all dynamical guidance through 48 hours. Thereafter, vertical wind shear over Estelle is predicted to increase, and in 72 hours sea surface temperatures begin to decrease significantly. This effect should result in a fairly rapid rate of weakening. Estelle continues moving west-northwestward at around 10 kt on the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge. This synoptic feature is expected to continue to steer the hurricane in the same general direction for the next several days. The official forecast is practically the same as the previous NHC track and again follows the multi-model consensus, TVCE, closely. The main coastal impact from Estelle is expected to be rough surf and the potential for rip currents along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico as well as the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula during the next day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 16.1N 107.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 16.7N 109.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 17.3N 111.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 17.7N 114.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 18.3N 116.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 20/0600Z 19.2N 118.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 20.3N 121.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 21.9N 125.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 22.8N 128.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci