Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Estelle Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ41 KNHC 172036
TCDEP1

Hurricane Estelle Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062022
300 PM MDT Sun Jul 17 2022

Estelle has changed little in organization since this morning.  
There is an apparent dry slot near the core of the circulation, 
which is possibly inhibiting further intensification for the time 
being.  The anticyclonic outflow, banding features, and cold cloud 
tops remain intact, however.  Dvorak satellite intensity estimates 
from TAFB and SAB are still 77 kt and 65 kt, respectively.  Given 
no changes to these estimates and the overall satellite appearance, 
the initial intensity is kept at 75 kt.

The cyclone is expected to be in an atmospheric and oceanic 
environment conducive for further strengthening during the next day 
or so.  Statistical guidance still shows the possibility of rapid 
intensification in 24 hours and the official forecast remains above 
all dynamical guidance through 48 hours.  Thereafter, vertical wind 
shear over Estelle is predicted to increase, and in 72 hours sea 
surface temperatures begin to decrease significantly. This effect 
should result in a fairly rapid rate of weakening. 

Estelle continues moving west-northwestward at around 10 kt on the 
southern periphery of a mid-level ridge.  This synoptic feature is 
expected to continue to steer the hurricane in the same general 
direction for the next several days.  The official forecast is 
practically the same as the previous NHC track and again follows the 
multi-model consensus, TVCE, closely.

The main coastal impact from Estelle is expected to be rough surf
and the potential for rip currents along the coast of southwestern
and west-central Mexico as well as the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula during the next day or two.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 16.1N 107.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 16.7N 109.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 17.3N 111.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 17.7N 114.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  19/1800Z 18.3N 116.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  20/0600Z 19.2N 118.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  20/1800Z 20.3N 121.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  21/1800Z 21.9N 125.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  22/1800Z 22.8N 128.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci



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