000 WTPA42 PHFO 080843 TCDCP2 Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 32 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023 1100 PM HST Mon Aug 07 2023 The satellite presentation of Dora remains impressive this evening, with the tropical cyclone continuing to display annular characteristics. The 15 nautical mile wide eye remains very warm and surrounded by a very cold dense overcast. Microwave imagery from earlier this evening showed a well defined eyewall structure in place as well. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from PHFO and SAB were both 6.0 (115 kt), while the objective Dvorak ADT and AiDT estimates from UW-CIMSS were 117 kt each. As a result, the initial intensity has been held at 115 kt for this advisory. Dora is moving slightly south of due west at 20 kt. This general motion is expected to continue during the next couple days as a deep layer ridge builds north of the Hawaiian Islands. A turn to the west- northwest is forecast beyond day 2 as the tropical cyclone rounds the southwestern periphery of the deep layer subtropical ridge north of Hawaii. On this forecast track, Dora is expected to move into the western Pacific basin late Friday. The official forecast track was nudged southward slightly during the next couple days due to the recent southward jog that Dora has taken and to bring it in better alignment with the latest consensus guidance. Beyond 48 hours, the forecast track is virtually identical to the previous advisory. The environmental conditions along the forecast track of Dora appear conducive for maintaining a very intense tropical cyclone during the next several days, with the only potential negative factor being the surrounding dry mid-level air around the system. Given the current annular appearance of Dora, and the fact it has appeared annular for several days now, the dry mid-level air surrounding the storm will likely have a difficult time being entrained into the system. Vertical wind shear will remain low during the next 3 days, before increasing slightly by day 4, and more substantially by day 5. Meanwhile sea surface temperatures will change little during the next 24 to 36 hours, remaining around 27C. Beyond 36 hours, the SSTs will gradually increase into the 28/29C range, with ocean heat content values rising considerably from day 2 onward. The official intensity forecast shows a slow and gradual decrease during the next 24 hours, with the intensity then held steady through day 3. There is the potential that Dora could strengthen again in the 48 through 72 hour time frame due to the increase in SSTs and OHC. By day 4, vertical wind shear should begin to impact the tropical cyclone, with a more drastic decline in intensity expected by day 5 as shear begins to overwhelm Dora. This forecast is weighted heavily toward the intensity consensus guidance, which has been performing much better than the dynamical models over the last couple days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 11.7N 154.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 11.6N 157.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 11.6N 161.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 11.9N 164.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 12.5N 168.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 10/1800Z 13.3N 172.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 14.5N 175.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 16.8N 178.4E 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 18.5N 172.6E 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Jelsema