000 WTPA42 PHFO 070833 TCDCP2 Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 28 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 06 2023 The satellite presentation of Dora remains impressive this evening with a very warm 10 nautical mile wide eye surrounded by a very cold dense overcast. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from PHFO, SAB, and JTWC came in at 6.0 (115 kt), 6.5 (127 kt), 6.5 (127 kt) respectively, while the objective Dvorak ADT and AiDT estimates from UW-CIMSS were both 6.0 (115 kt). Using a blend of these data, the initial intensity is set at 120 kt. Dora is moving slightly south of due west at 20 kt. This general motion is expected to continue during the next several days as a deep layer ridge builds to the north of the Hawaiian Islands. A turn to the northwest is forecast beyond day 3 as the tropical cyclone rounds the southwestern periphery of the deep layer subtropical ridge to the north of Hawaii. On this forecast track, Dora is expected to move into the western Pacific basin late this week. The forecast track has changed little from the previous advisory and is roughly a blend of the HCCA and TVCN consensus guidance and deterministic GFS and ECMWF guidance. The environmental conditions along the forecast track of Dora during the next several days are generally conducive for maintenance of a very intense tropical cyclone, with the exception of the mid-level dry air surrounding the system. Vertical wind shear will remain low during the next 4 days, while sea surface temperatures remain around 27C. Beyond day 4 the SSTs increase into the 28/29C range, but vertical wind shear is forecast to rise substantially. Given the current annular appearance of Dora, the intensity forecast calls for a very slow and steady decrease through the forecast period, with the tropical cyclone being influenced primarily by the dry mid-level environment surrounding the system. This forecast is essentially a blend of the statistical and dynamical intensity guidance and very close to the previous intensity forecast through day 3, and slightly higher at days 4 and 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 12.5N 146.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 12.4N 149.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 12.3N 152.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 12.2N 156.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 12.3N 160.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 12.5N 164.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 12.9N 168.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 14.5N 175.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 16.5N 178.5E 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Jelsema