Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Dora Forecast Discussion

WTPA42 PHFO 090835

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number  36
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP052023
1100 PM HST Tue Aug 08 2023

Dora continues to be a compact and powerful hurricane on a rapid 
westward track across the central Pacific. The system continues to 
exhibit annular characteristics on satellite with its 
compact size, well-defined eye, and its persistent and symmetric 
ring of deep convection. The eye at times has appeared to become a 
little cloud filled, but then quickly clears out again. The latest 
subjective Dvorak estimates from JTWC and PHFO were 6.0 and SAB was 
5.5. Objective estimates from CIMSS are between 110 and 115 kt. 
The initial intensity has been held at 115 kt with this 

The initial motion intensity for this advisory is 270/20 kt. Model 
guidance remains tightly clustered through the remaining time Dora 
will be in the central Pacific basin, with more variability noted as 
the system exits the central Pacific around hour 60. The forecast 
track remains closely aligned with the previous advisory and follows 
closely the TVCN model consensus. This maintains a westward track 
for another day, and then turns to the west-northwest as it begins 
to round the southwest edge of the ridge to the north. On this 
track, the system will pass far south of Johnston Island Wednesday 
night. The system then turns to the northwest as it moves into the 
western Pacific basin Friday.  

The intensity forecast continues to be the more challenging aspect 
of Dora's future. The environmental conditions remain conducive for 
Dora to remain a strong tropical cyclone over the next couple of 
days, with little vertical wind shear and sufficiently warm 
SSTs/OHC. There is good agreement that Dora will be moving over 
slightly warmer waters and increased ocean heat content in about 24 
hours as the cyclone starts to move to the west-northwest. While 
these warmer waters could contribute to maintaining, or even 
strengthening of the cyclone, southwesterly deep layer shear is 
expected to begin to increase shortly thereafter, as Dora rounds the 
ridge to the north. The shear is expected to increase as Dora 
approaches the date line Friday. The latest ECMWF SHIPS guidance 
maintains the 115 kt intensity for the next 36 hours while other 
guidance slowly weakens the system. With little change expected with 
Dora's immediate environment for the next day, and the ECMWF holding 
it higher, have held the intensity a touch higher than the previous 
forecast for the first 48 hours. The forecast then follows the 
weakening in the guidance as was reflected in the previous advisory. 
This update to the intensity places it on the high end of the model 
consensus in the short term, and leans towards the LGEM guidance for 
the later periods.


INIT  09/0900Z 11.4N 162.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 11.7N 165.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 12.3N 168.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 13.1N 172.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  11/0600Z 14.1N 175.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  11/1800Z 15.2N 179.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  12/0600Z 16.3N 178.0E   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  13/0600Z 17.8N 172.3E   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  14/0600Z 19.2N 167.3E   45 KT  50 MPH

Forecaster M Ballard/Jelsema

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