154 WTPZ45 KNHC 120843 TCDEP5 Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022 1100 PM HST Mon Jul 11 2022 Darby has remained an impressive, compact hurricane with an annular structure through the night. After a brief period of eyewall warming, the cold cloud tops surrounding the clear eye now range between -60 and -70 degrees Celsius. The initial intensity is held at 120 kt, which is above the subjective Dvorak estimates of 102 kt and 115 kt based on the current presentation in satellite imagery. The hurricane is expected to remain in a relatively conducive environment for the next 12 hours or so. Beyond that time frame, Darby should encounter cooler waters and increasingly dry air which will likely begin a general weakening trend. The system is expected to rapidly weaken and become post-tropical when the vertical wind shear increases significantly in a few days. The official intensity forecast closely follows the previous advisory and is slightly above the model consensus aids in the near-term forecast. Darby is moving westward at about 15 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north should continue to steer the hurricane westward to west-northwestward into the central Pacific basin. As the system weakens to a more shallow circulation, it is expected to turn westward following the low-level trade winds. The NHC track forecast is slightly south of the previous prediction but is still north of the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 14.7N 128.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 14.8N 130.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 15.0N 132.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 15.5N 135.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 16.2N 137.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 14/1800Z 16.8N 140.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 17.2N 142.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 17.3N 148.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 17/0600Z 17.0N 155.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci