Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Darby Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ45 KNHC 132037
TCDEP5

Hurricane Darby Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052022
1100 AM HST Wed Jul 13 2022

The eye of Darby has become more distinct since the last advisory, 
suggesting that a little more intensification has occurred,  In 
response, the intensity estimates from various subjective and 
objective satellite techniques have nudged upward and are currently 
in the 90-100 kt range.  The initial intensity is set at a possibly 
conservative 95 kt.

While Darby is currently in an environment of light shear and 
decent moisture, the center is over sea surface temperatures of 
25-26C.  This is expected to cause a slow weakening during the next 
24 h.  After that time, the cyclone is forecast to encounter 
moderate to strong westerly shear and move into a very dry air mass, 
and this combination is likely to cause rapid weakening.  Simulated 
satellite imagery from the GFS model indicates that the associated 
convection should dissipate around the 48 h point, with Darby 
becoming a post-tropical low by 60-72 h.  The new intensity 
forecast is adjusted upward through the first 24 h, then shows a 
somewhat faster weakening than the previous forecast.  The global 
models are in good agreement that the remnants of Darby will weaken 
to a trough by 96 h, so the forecast continues to call for 
dissipation by that time.

A strong low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Darby should 
continue to steer the storm generally west-northwestward for the 
next 24 h or so, followed by a turn toward the west.  There are 
only minor adjustments from the previous forecast track, which 
lies near the center of the tightly clustered guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/2100Z 15.4N 136.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 15.7N 138.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 16.3N 141.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 16.7N 143.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 16.8N 146.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  16/0600Z 16.7N 149.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  16/1800Z 16.5N 152.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven



Source link