590 WTPZ45 KNHC 110237 TCDEP5 Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022 500 PM HST Sun Jul 10 2022 Darby has continued to strengthen since the last advisory. Deep convection near and over its center has been persistent during the past several hours, and a series of passive microwave images revealed a well-defined inner core structure has developed underneath Darby's small central dense overcast. Although the subjective Dvorak classifications at 00 UTC were a consensus T3.5/55 kt, the objective ADT and SATCON estimates have recently climbed as high as 72 kt based on the improved microwave structure of the storm. Based on these trends, the initial intensity is set at 65 kt for this advisory, which makes Darby the fourth eastern North Pacific hurricane this season. The near-term environmental conditions remain favorable for additional strengthening, as Darby is forecast to move over warm SSTs within a low deep-layer shear environment. Although the small hurricane could be susceptible to additional bouts of dry-air entrainment, the improved inner-core structure of Darby should allow the cyclone to continue intensifying over the next day or so before it reaches cooler waters by Wednesday. The official intensity forecast is slightly above the previous one and remains on the high end of the guidance, slightly higher than the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) and the SHIPS guidance. By midweek, Darby is forecast to encounter drier mid-level air as it crosses the 26 C isotherm, which should induce a weakening trend. Given its small size, Darby should weaken quickly later in the period, and the day 5 forecast shows Darby as a 30-kt post-tropical remnant low. Darby's motion is just a bit north of due west at 275/15 kt. Darby will continue moving quickly westward for the next couple of days, to the south of an established mid-level ridge that extends across the eastern North Pacific. As the cyclone reaches the southwestern extent of the ridge, it is forecast to turn west-northwestward later this week. There is still some along-track spread noted among the various global models, with the UKMET much faster and farther south than the GFS and ECMWF solutions at later forecast times. The official NHC track forecast remains very close to the previous one, and is generally just a bit north of the consensus aids and closer to the GFS/ECMWF consensus (GFEX). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 14.6N 120.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 14.7N 122.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 14.9N 125.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 15.1N 127.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 15.4N 130.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 13/1200Z 16.0N 132.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 14/0000Z 16.7N 135.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 15/0000Z 18.0N 140.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 16/0000Z 18.5N 145.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart