Hurricane Carlotta Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 040237
TCDEP3

Hurricane Carlotta Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032024
800 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024

The structure of Carlotta on conventional geostationary satellite 
imagery has been gradually becoming less impressive.  Although the 
latest subjective CI numbers are still around 77 kt, the latest 
CIMSS objective intensity estimates have fallen to the 65-72 kt 
range.  Based on these data, the initial intensity is set to 70 kt.

Carlotta is moving toward the west-northwest, or 285/9 kt.  A 
deep-layer ridge to the north of Carlotta will keep the cyclone 
moving on a west-northwestward course at a similar forward speed 
during the next couple of days.  After that time, Carlotta is 
expected to become more vertically shallow, which should ultimately 
cause the cyclone to turn westward within the low-level steering 
flow.  The new NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged from the 
previous forecast, and lies near the middle of the guidance 
envelope.

Carlotta has crossed the 26C SST isotherm this evening and is 
forecast to reach SSTs colder than 24C within the next 24 h.  The 
cyclone is currently in a low-shear environment, but southwesterly 
shear is forecast to become much stronger in about 24 h.  Carlotta 
will also be reaching a more stable environment by Sunday morning.  
The combination of these factors will cause continued weakening.  
Carlotta is forecast to become a remnant low on Tuesday morning, as 
both the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery show the cyclone 
losing its convection by that time. The remnant low should then 
dissipate later in the week. The NHC intensity forecast is in good 
agreement with the intensity consensus aids and is nearly identical 
to the previous NHC forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 19.4N 121.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 19.8N 123.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 20.4N 125.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 21.0N 127.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 21.3N 128.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  06/1200Z 21.6N 130.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/0000Z 21.7N 131.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/0000Z 21.6N 134.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Brown