Hurricane Carlotta Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 032042
TCDEP3

Hurricane Carlotta Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032024
200 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024

Carlotta appears to have peaked in intensity earlier today, as the 
core convection on the west side has eroded a bit this afternoon, 
leading to a slightly less symmetric structure. A pair of recent 
ASCAT passes indicate that the low-level wind structure is fairly 
symmetric, with winds over 50 kt in all quadrants. The latest 
subjective CI numbers from TAFB and SAB are T-4.5/77 kt and the 
objective CIMSS intensity estimates range from 64 to 87 kt. The 
initial intensity has been nudged down to 75 kt based on a blend of 
the data and the slightly degraded structure noted on satellite 
imagery.

Carlotta has been moving more westward and a bit slower, about 
275/9-kt. A deep-layer ridge to the north of Carlotta will keep the 
cyclone moving on a westward to west-northwestward course at a 
slightly slower forward speed during the next few days. After that 
time, Carlotta is expected to become more vertically shallow, which 
should ultimately cause the cyclone to turn back westward towards 
the end of the forecast period. Very little change has been made to 
the previous NHC forecast.

Carlotta will be crossing the 26C SST isotherm by this evening. 
Beyond 24 hours, the wind shear is forecast to increase as the 
cyclone moves into a more stable environment. Only slow weakening 
is forecast during the next 24 hours, with more steady weakening 
after that time. Carlotta is forecast to become a remnant low on 
Tuesday, as both the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imageries 
show the cyclone losing its convection by that time. The remnant 
low should then dissipate later in the week. The NHC intensity 
forecast is in good agreement with the intensity consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 19.0N 120.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 19.4N 122.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 20.1N 124.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 20.6N 126.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 21.1N 127.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  06/0600Z 21.4N 129.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 21.7N 130.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/1800Z 21.7N 133.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Papin