Hurricane Carlotta Forecast Discussion

831 
WTPZ43 KNHC 031443
TCDEP3

Hurricane Carlotta Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032024
800 AM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024

This morning Carlotta might be near or just past its peak intensity.
The smaller inner-core we had been observing over the last day or so
has become a bit broader, with an AMSR-2 microwave pass at 0943 UTC
showing that an eyewall replacement cycle has been underway.
Intensity estimates this morning are about the same as they were
last night, and given the structural evolution seen on satellite,
the initial intensity is being held at 80 kt.

Carlotta continues to move westward to west-northwestward at
285/12-kt. A gradual slow down in the hurricane's forward motion is
expected over the next few days as it reaches the westward extent of
a deep-layer ridge. After that time, Carlotta is expected to become
more vertically shallow, which should ultimately cause the cyclone
to turn back westward towards the end of the forecast period. Only
minor adjustments were made in the forecast track this cycle, and
the latest NHC forecast remains in good agreement with the consensus
aids which are tightly clustered with the overall model guidance.

With the aforementioned eyewall replacement cycle ongoing, Carlotta
has likely run out of time to intensify much more in the short-term,
especially since the hurricane will be crossing the 26 C isotherm in
12 hours. Thus, no more intensification is shown in the latest NHC
forecast, with gradual weakening expected to begin on Sunday. This
weakening will likely be hastened by an abrupt increase in
southwesterly vertical wind shear after 24 h as indicated by the
SHIPS guidance, and Carlotta is likely to become a remnant low
before the end of the forecast period as its remaining organized
convection dissipates as seen in simulated IR from the GFS/ECMWF.
The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the intensity
consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 19.0N 120.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 19.2N 121.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 19.7N 123.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 20.4N 125.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 20.9N 127.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  06/0000Z 21.2N 128.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  06/1200Z 21.4N 130.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  07/1200Z 21.5N 133.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/1200Z 21.5N 136.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin