Hurricane Carlotta Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 030856
TCDEP3

Hurricane Carlotta Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032024
200 AM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024

Carlotta has become a little better organized over the past several 
hours.  An eye has occasionally been apparent in satellite images 
and deep convection remains most organized on the south side of the 
circulation.  There are some intrusions of dry air, however, that 
have caused gaps in the deep convective pattern north of the center. 
A blend of the latest objective and subjective satellite intensity 
estimates support nudging up the initial intensity to 80 kt.  
Carlotta is a compact hurricane with recent ASCAT-B data showing 
that the tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 n mi 
from the center and hurricane-force winds are estimated to only 
extend about 10 n mi from the center.

The hurricane could strengthen a little more while it remains in 
conducive environmental conditions, but the window for 
intensification should close by this evening.  Steady weakening is 
expected to begin tonight once Carlotta crosses the 26 C SST 
isotherm and moves into an environment of increasing vertical wind 
shear and drier air.  Carlotta will likely fall below hurricane 
strength on Sunday and weaken to a remnant low in 3 to 4 days.  The 
NHC intensity forecast follows the trend in the guidance.

Carlotta is moving westward at 12 kt.  A west-northwestward motion
at a slightly slower pace is expected during the next few days as
the hurricane moves toward the western periphery of a mid-level
ridge.  However, once Carlotta becomes a weak and shallow system by
the middle of next week, it will likely turn back westward in the
low-level flow.  Little change was made to the previous track
forecast, and this one is close to the middle of the guidance
envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 18.9N 118.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 19.1N 120.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 19.5N 122.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 20.1N 124.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  05/0600Z 20.7N 126.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  05/1800Z 21.1N 128.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  06/0600Z 21.4N 129.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  07/0600Z 22.1N 132.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/0600Z 22.1N 136.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi