Hurricane Carlotta Forecast Discussion

275 
WTPZ43 KNHC 030248
TCDEP3

Hurricane Carlotta Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032024
800 PM PDT Fri Aug 02 2024

Carlotta has changed little in structure this evening.  Infrared 
geostationary satellite imagery continues to show hints of a clouded 
eye embedded in a central dense overcast with upper-level outflow 
present in all quadrants.  Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and 
SAB were T4.5/77-kt and objective estimates range between 71-82 kt.  
The initial intensity for this advisory is held at 75 kt in the 
middle of these estimates.

The hurricane is moving westward at about 12 kt.  A ridge centered 
over the southwestern United States is forecast to steer Carlotta 
westward for another day or so.  Later this weekend, the hurricane 
is expected to turn to the west-northwest around the southwest edge 
of the ridge.  Carlotta should turn back to the west as it weakens 
later in the forecast period.  Only minor adjustments have been made 
to the latest NHC track forecast.

The window for additional strengthening is growing smaller.  Within 
a day, Carlotta is expected to be over cooler ocean waters and begin 
weakening.  By Sunday night or Monday morning, the vertical wind 
shear is forecast to notably increase and steadily weaken the 
hurricane.  Simulated satellite imagery from global models indicate 
that Carlotta should lose its convection by day 4.  The official 
intensity forecast is above most guidance in the near-term 
prediction, and closer to the various consensus aids for the 
remainder of the forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 18.8N 117.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 19.0N 119.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 19.3N 121.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 19.8N 123.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 20.3N 125.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  05/1200Z 20.8N 127.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 21.2N 129.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  07/0000Z 22.0N 132.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/0000Z 22.2N 135.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci