Hurricane Carlotta Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 022038
TCDEP3

Hurricane Carlotta Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032024
200 PM PDT Fri Aug 02 2024

While Carlotta remains a small hurricane, its structure appears 
rather healthy, with a distinct central dense overcast and a clouded 
over eye appearing on visible or infrared imagery. There was also a 
GPM microwave pass at 1623 UTC which showed a well-organized 
inner-core with a small eyewall. The latest TAFB Dvorak intensity 
estimate was T4.5/77-kt, and objective estimates range from 65-82 
kt, so the initial intensity was nudged up to 75 kt for this 
advisory. The 34- and 50-kt wind radii were adjusted some thanks to 
a helpful afternoon scatterometer pass. 

Carlotta is moving a little more westward this afternoon, estimated 
at 280/12 kt. There has not been much change to the track forecast 
philosophy, with well-established ridging poleward of Carlotta 
expected to maintain this westward to west-northwestward heading 
over the next several days, albeit with a gradual slowdown. By the 
end of the forecast as Carlotta loses its deep convection, it will 
turn westward as it primarily becomes steered by the low-level flow. 
The track guidance was little changed from the previous cycle, and 
the NHC track forecast is quite similar to the previous advisory. 

The hurricane has another 24 hours over sufficently warm waters and 
light to moderate vertical wind shear to intensify a bit more, and 
the NHC intensity forecast maintains a peak intensity at 85 kt, or 
Category 2 intensity. However, Carlotta then moves over less than 26 
C sea surface temperatures beyond that time frame, and this coupled 
with the hurricane moving into increasingly dry and stable air, 
should induce gradual weakening. This process will also be hastened 
by increasing southwesterly shear beyond 60 h, and Carlotta will 
likely lose convective organization sometime in the days 4 or 5 
time-frame, marking its transition to a post-tropical cyclone. The 
NHC intensity forecast is in pretty good agreement with the 
consensus intensity aids, and is a little lower after 24 hours than 
the prior NHC intensity forecast. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 18.7N 116.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 19.0N 118.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 19.2N 120.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 19.6N 122.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 20.1N 124.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  05/0600Z 20.6N 126.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 21.0N 128.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 22.0N 131.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 22.5N 135.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin