Hurricane Carlotta Forecast Advisory

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 032041
TCMEP3

HURRICANE CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032024
2100 UTC SAT AUG 03 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 120.9W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE   0SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  50SE  60SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE  75SE  75SW 110NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 120.9W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 120.4W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.4N 122.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 35NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.1N 124.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.6N 126.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.1N 127.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.4N 129.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 21.7N 130.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 21.7N 133.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 120.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/PAPIN