000 WTPZ44 KNHC 060234 TCDEP4 Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 900 PM MDT Tue Jul 05 2022 Bonnie's cloud pattern has deteriorated since the previous advisory and the storm seems to be feeling the effects of some moderate north-northeasterly shear. The eye has filled in and the colder cloud tops (of less than -80C) are less prevalent in the western portion of the circulation. The initial intensity has been lowered to 95 kt, and this could be a generous estimate given the recent degradation of the inner core on satellite imagery. Vertical wind shear from the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance is forecast to remain moderate in the next 12 hours and will likely prevent Bonnie from strengthening further. The storm is then expected to enter an increasingly drier environment, as seen in water vapor imagery just to the west of the hurricane, and move over cooler waters, which should speed up its weakening. Bonnie is now expected to become post-tropical by day 4, which is consistent with simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF global models. The intensity forecast is mostly a continuation of the previous advisory, but slightly lower because of the lowered initial intensity. Bonnie is moving west-northwestward at 13 kt along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge to the north. This ridge is forecast to weaken a bit in the next day or so and slightly reduce the forward speed of the system for a couple of days. As the circulation weakens and becomes more shallow, it is expected to turn more westward and increase in forward speed following the lower-level flow. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and closely follows the consensus aids. Although Bonnie will be moving farther away from the southwestern coast of Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico for another day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 15.7N 107.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 16.1N 108.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 16.6N 110.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 17.1N 113.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 17.7N 115.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 08/1200Z 18.4N 119.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 19.1N 122.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 20.0N 129.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 11/0000Z 20.0N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci