Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Bonnie Forecast Discussion


910 
WTPZ44 KNHC 051437
TCDEP4

Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042022
1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

Earlier microwave images reveal a well-developed inner core
structure with a 10-nm-wide eye, and impressive curved band 
features in the west and south parts of the cyclone.  The 
surrounding cloud tops have cooled quite a bit during the past few 
hours, but the eye temperature hasn't warmed that much.  The initial 
intensity is increased to 100 kt for this advisory and is supported 
by a blend of the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and 
SAB.

It appears as though modest northeasterly shear has begun 
to restrict the outflow some in the north portion of the cyclone, 
and this shear is expected to persist during the next 24 hours.
Consequently, some fluctuations in strength are possible during the 
period and the NHC forecast shows a slight increase in intensity in 
12 hours in deference to the recent inner core improvement.
Afterward, the inhibiting shear should decrease, however,the GFS and 
ECMWF SHIPS intensity models show the cyclone traversing cooler 
oceanic surface temperatures and moving into a less favorable 
thermodynamic surrounding environment.  A combination of these 
negative intensity contributions should cause Bonnie to slowly 
weaken through the remainder of the period and the official 
forecast follows suit.

Bonnie's initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/12 kt. 
A mid-tropospheric ridge anchored to the north of the cyclone 
should keep it on a west to west-northwest heading through the  
entire forecast period.  Around mid-period, however, a weakness in 
the ridge is forecast to develop over the Baja California 
peninsula, which should temporarily slow Bonnie's forward speed.  
The track forecast is a little faster than the previous one beyond 
day 3 and is based on the TVCE multi-model consensus aid.

Although the core of Bonnie is expected to remain well south of
Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will continue
to affect southwestern Mexico for another day or two.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 15.3N 104.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 15.6N 106.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 16.0N 108.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 16.3N 110.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 16.8N 112.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  08/0000Z 17.4N 115.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 18.2N 118.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  09/1200Z 19.5N 125.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  10/1200Z 20.4N 131.3W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts




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