000 WTPZ44 KNHC 071436 TCDEP4 Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 900 AM MDT Thu Jul 07 2022 The overall satellite presentation of Bonnie has not changed much this morning. An earlier AMSR2 microwave overpass revealed a well-defined low-level eye, but the deep convection was fragmented over the southwestern portion of the circulation. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity (CI) numbers from TAFB and SAB are 5.0 and 4.0, respectively, which supports maintaining an intensity of 80 kt. Bonnie will be crossing the 26C isotherm later today, and into a drier and more stable environment over the next 24-48 hours. These factors should result in steady to rapid weakening beginning later today or tonight. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest Bonnie will cease to produce deep convection in 48-60 h, and the official forecast calls for Bonnie to become a remnant low by late Saturday. Additional spin down is expected after that time, and the system should degenerate into a trough of low pressure shortly after day 3. Bonnie is moving west-northwestward at about 12 kt. A subtropical ridge to the north of the system should continue to steer the storm westward to west-northwestward. As Bonnie weakens it is expected to accelerate more westward as it comes under the influence of the stronger low-level trade wind flow. The new forecast is similar to the previous advisory and remains near the center of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 17.3N 113.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 17.9N 116.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 18.5N 119.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 19.1N 122.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 19.6N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 19.8N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/1200Z 19.9N 133.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown