Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Bonnie Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ44 KNHC 071436
TCDEP4

Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number  40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042022
900 AM MDT Thu Jul 07 2022

The overall satellite presentation of Bonnie has not changed much 
this morning.  An earlier AMSR2 microwave overpass revealed a 
well-defined low-level eye, but the deep convection was fragmented 
over the southwestern portion of the circulation.  The latest 
subjective Dvorak current intensity (CI) numbers from TAFB and SAB 
are 5.0 and 4.0, respectively, which supports maintaining an 
intensity of 80 kt.  Bonnie will be crossing the 26C isotherm later 
today, and into a drier and more stable environment over the next 
24-48 hours.  These factors should result in steady to rapid 
weakening beginning later today or tonight. Simulated satellite 
imagery from the global models suggest Bonnie will cease to produce 
deep convection in 48-60 h, and the official forecast calls for 
Bonnie to become a remnant low by late Saturday.  Additional spin 
down is expected after that time, and the system should degenerate 
into a trough of low pressure shortly after day 3. 

Bonnie is moving west-northwestward at about 12 kt.  A subtropical 
ridge to the north of the system should continue to steer the storm 
westward to west-northwestward.  As Bonnie weakens it is expected to 
accelerate more westward as it comes under the influence of the 
stronger low-level trade wind flow.  The new forecast is similar to 
the previous advisory and remains near the center of the guidance 
envelope. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 17.3N 113.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 17.9N 116.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 18.5N 119.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 19.1N 122.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z 19.6N 126.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  10/0000Z 19.8N 130.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  10/1200Z 19.9N 133.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown



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