130 WTPZ44 KNHC 070237 TCDEP4 Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 900 PM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022 Over the past several hours, Bonnie appears to have succumbed to the effects of northwesterly wind shear. Satellite infrared imagery shows no distinguishable eye feature and cold cloud tops of -80C or less are only present in southeastern quadrant of the storm. The initial intensity has been lowered to 85 kt because of the recent reduction of inner core convective organization. This is between the final T and Current Intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB. Water vapor satellite imagery shows a dry air mass ahead of Bonnie. This atmospheric environment, and decreasing sea surface temperatures, are expected to continue weakening the storm gradually. Within about a day, the tropical cyclone should cross into ocean temperatures of less than 26 C which will likely quicken the rate of weakening. Bonnie is forecast to become post-tropical by 60 hours, but simulated satellite infrared imagery from the GFS and ECMWF suggest this transition could occur even sooner. The official intensity forecast is close to the previous advisory and lies on the lower end of the intensity guidance. The hurricane continues to move to the west-northwest at about 12 kt on the periphery of a mid-level ridge to its north. This synoptic feature is predicted to steer Bonnie west-northwestward for the next couple of days until its circulation weakens and the shallower vortex follows the faster, westward trade wind flow. The updated NHC track forecast is slightly north of the one from the previous advisory and closely follows the consensus model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 16.9N 111.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 17.4N 113.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 18.1N 116.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 18.7N 119.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 19.3N 122.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 19.7N 126.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 10/0000Z 20.0N 130.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/0000Z 20.2N 136.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci/Pasch