751 WTPZ44 KNHC 061449 TCDEP4 Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022 There's been quite a bit of improvement this morning in Bonnie's inner core structure and a cloud-filled eye reappeared in first light visible imagery. A 1216 UTC SSMI/S microwave pass revealed a partial eyewall with about 70 percent coverage in the north through southwest quadrants and recent enhanced infrared images show Bonnie attempting to close off a white ring with -77C cloud top temperatures. The initial intensity is raised to 90 kt for this advisory, in accordance with the subjective satellite intensity estimates. Bonnie's surface wind profile has been reduced in all quadrants based on a 0448 UTC METOP-B scatterometer overpass and subsequently has been adjusted downward in the forecast. The predicted decrease in vertical wind shear has allowed Bonnie to make a comeback. This sudden intensification is expected to be temporary, however, and Bonnie should begin to weaken slowly on Thursday while it begins its track over decreasing oceanic surface temperatures. Dry, stable environmental conditions will also contribute to its eventual dissipation by late this weekend. The NHC forecast is again adjusted downward from the previous one and is based mainly on the global models and the IVCN intensity aid. Bonnie should degenerate to a remnant low in 4 days, if not earlier, and open into a trough of low pressure early next week. Bonnie's moving westward, or 280/10 kt within the westerly mid-level steering flow of a subtropical ridge to the north. There are no changes to the forecast track philosophy. The cyclone should continue on a westward to west-northwestward fashion with an increase in forward speed commencing Thursday. The official forecast is essentially the same as last night's advisory and agrees with the TVCE multi-model consensus. Although Bonnie will be moving farther away from the southwestern coast of Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 16.1N 108.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 16.5N 110.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 17.0N 113.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 17.6N 115.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 18.2N 119.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 18.8N 122.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 19.2N 126.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 10/1200Z 19.4N 133.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts