Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Bonnie Forecast Discussion


451 
WTPZ44 KNHC 060837
TCDEP4

Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042022
300 AM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022

Bonnie continues to feel the effects of north-northeasterly shear, 
with the central convection becoming less organized during the past 
few hours.  The various subjective and objective satellite 
intensity estimates have trended downward since the last advisory, 
and based on this the initial intensity is lowered to 85 kt.  This 
could be a little generous, as the CIMSS SATCON and ADT estimates 
are currently 65-70 kt

The current shear is likely to diminish during the next 24 h.  
However, the sea surface temperatures are expected to decrease 
along the forecast track, with the cyclone reaching the 26C 
isotherm in about 48 h and moving over colder water after that.  In 
addition, Bonnie is likely to encounter a much drier air mass after 
about 24 h.  The new intensity forecast now calls for Bobbie to 
change little in strength during the next 24-36 h, followed by 
steady weakening.  The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical 
in about 96 h and to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area by 
120 h.  The new intensity forecast has some downward adjustments 
from the previous forecast and follows the general trend of the 
intensity guidance.

Bonnie is moving 280/12 kt along the southern periphery of a 
mid-level ridge to the north.  This ridge is forecast to weaken a 
bit in the next day or so and slightly reduce the forward speed of 
the system for a couple of days.  Later in the forecast period, 
Bonnie is expected to weaken and become a shallow circulation, 
which would result in the cyclone turning westward and accelerating 
in the low-level trade wind flow.  The new forecast track is an 
update of the previous track and lies near the consensus models, 
which are between the slightly faster UKMET and the slightly slower 
GFS.

Although Bonnie will be moving farther away from the southwestern
coast of Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will
continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico for
another day or so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0900Z 15.9N 108.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 16.3N 109.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 16.8N 112.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 17.4N 114.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  08/0600Z 18.0N 117.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  08/1800Z 18.7N 121.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  09/0600Z 19.3N 124.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  10/0600Z 20.0N 132.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  11/0600Z 20.0N 139.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven




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