451 WTPZ44 KNHC 060837 TCDEP4 Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 300 AM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022 Bonnie continues to feel the effects of north-northeasterly shear, with the central convection becoming less organized during the past few hours. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have trended downward since the last advisory, and based on this the initial intensity is lowered to 85 kt. This could be a little generous, as the CIMSS SATCON and ADT estimates are currently 65-70 kt The current shear is likely to diminish during the next 24 h. However, the sea surface temperatures are expected to decrease along the forecast track, with the cyclone reaching the 26C isotherm in about 48 h and moving over colder water after that. In addition, Bonnie is likely to encounter a much drier air mass after about 24 h. The new intensity forecast now calls for Bobbie to change little in strength during the next 24-36 h, followed by steady weakening. The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical in about 96 h and to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area by 120 h. The new intensity forecast has some downward adjustments from the previous forecast and follows the general trend of the intensity guidance. Bonnie is moving 280/12 kt along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge to the north. This ridge is forecast to weaken a bit in the next day or so and slightly reduce the forward speed of the system for a couple of days. Later in the forecast period, Bonnie is expected to weaken and become a shallow circulation, which would result in the cyclone turning westward and accelerating in the low-level trade wind flow. The new forecast track is an update of the previous track and lies near the consensus models, which are between the slightly faster UKMET and the slightly slower GFS. Although Bonnie will be moving farther away from the southwestern coast of Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico for another day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 15.9N 108.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 16.3N 109.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 16.8N 112.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 17.4N 114.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 18.0N 117.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 08/1800Z 18.7N 121.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 19.3N 124.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 20.0N 132.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 11/0600Z 20.0N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven