396 WTPZ42 KNHC 171445 TCDEP2 Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 900 AM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Blas has become a little better organized this morning. Microwave data from overnight showed an eye feature and numerous curved bands, especially south of the center. Since then, deep convection has been increasing and has become a bit more symmetric around the center. The latest Dvorak estimates range from 77 to 90 kt, and the initial intensity is nudged up to 80 kt based on that data. The hurricane continues to move west-northwestward, or 295 degrees, at 12 kt. Blas is being steered by a strong mid-level ridge centered over the south-central U.S. The hurricane is expected to slow down on Saturday and turn westward on Sunday as the system weakens and becomes increasingly steered by the lighter low-level flow. This slow westward motion is forecast to continue through the middle of next week. The NHC track forecast is nudged to the north of the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest consensus aids. Blas is currently in favorable conditions for strengthening, but that is not expected to last much longer. The hurricane should cross the 26 degree C isotherm later today and move over progressively cooler waters during the next several days. In addition, Blas will be moving into an environment of increasingly more stable and dry air. These conditions should promote a steady weakening trend, and Blas will likely become a shallow post-tropical system in a few days. The NHC intensity is forecast is a touch higher than the previous one, due to the slightly stronger initial intensity. While Blas is moving farther away from the coast of Mexico, its associated swells are expected to continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico for another day or so. These swells are expected to spread to parts of the southern Baja California peninsula later today and continue through the weekend. These conditions are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip currents in those areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 17.8N 109.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 18.2N 110.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 18.6N 112.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 18.8N 113.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 18.9N 114.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 20/0000Z 18.8N 115.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 18.7N 116.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 21/1200Z 18.8N 118.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/1200Z 19.0N 120.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi