000 WTPZ42 KNHC 170235 TCDEP2 Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 900 PM MDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Blas continues to battle moderate northeasterly shear this evening. Geostationary satellite infrared imagery shows cloud top temperatures have warmed over a large portion of the central dense overcast. There is still some strong convection near the center and curved banding features. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB evaluate the intensity at 90 kt and 77 kt, respectively. Objective Dvorak estimates are somewhat lower and the initial intensity is held at 75 kt as a compromise of these estimates. Blas is forecast to move over gradually cooling SSTs and into an increasingly dry environment over the next few days. These environmental factors should result in a slow weakening trend. The NHC intensity prediction is slightly above the model consensus and it is possible the storm could weaken faster than indicated here. The initial motion estimate remains about the same, at 290/9 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north continues to be the dominant steering feature and Blas is expected to maintain its west-northwest track with some increase in forward speed during the next day or so. Later in the forecast period, a weaker and more shallow Blas is likely to turn westward or west-southwestward within the low-level tradewind flow. The track model guidance is tightly clustered, and the latest NHC forecast is near the middle of the track guidance suite. While Blas is expected to remain off the coast of Mexico, its associated swells are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and are expected to spread to portions of the southern Baja California peninsula by late Friday. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions in those areas through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 16.5N 106.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 17.3N 108.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 18.0N 110.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 18.4N 112.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 18.7N 113.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 19/1200Z 18.7N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 18.5N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/0000Z 18.1N 117.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/0000Z 18.1N 119.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci