Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Blas Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ42 KNHC 170235
TCDEP2

Hurricane Blas Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022022
900 PM MDT Thu Jun 16 2022

Blas continues to battle moderate northeasterly shear this evening.  
Geostationary satellite infrared imagery shows cloud top 
temperatures have warmed over a large portion of the central dense 
overcast.  There is still some strong convection near the center and 
curved banding features.  Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and 
SAB evaluate the intensity at 90 kt and 77 kt, respectively.  
Objective Dvorak estimates are somewhat lower and the initial 
intensity is held at 75 kt as a compromise of these estimates.

Blas is forecast to move over gradually cooling SSTs and into an 
increasingly dry environment over the next few days.  These 
environmental factors should result in a slow weakening trend.  The 
NHC intensity prediction is slightly above the model consensus and 
it is possible the storm could weaken faster than indicated here.

The initial motion estimate remains about the same, at 290/9 kt.  A 
mid-level ridge to the north continues to be the dominant steering 
feature and Blas is expected to maintain its west-northwest track 
with some increase in forward speed during the next day or so.  
Later in the forecast period, a weaker and more shallow Blas is 
likely to turn westward or west-southwestward within the low-level 
tradewind flow. The track model guidance is tightly clustered, and 
the latest NHC forecast is near the middle of the track guidance 
suite.

While Blas is expected to remain off the coast of Mexico, its
associated swells are affecting portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico and are expected to spread to portions of the
southern Baja California peninsula by late Friday. These swells are
likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions in those
areas through the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 16.5N 106.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 17.3N 108.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 18.0N 110.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  18/1200Z 18.4N 112.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  19/0000Z 18.7N 113.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  19/1200Z 18.7N 114.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  20/0000Z 18.5N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  21/0000Z 18.1N 117.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  22/0000Z 18.1N 119.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci



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