Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Blas Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ42 KNHC 160233
TCDEP2

Hurricane Blas Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022022
1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

Blas remains a well-organized hurricane with very cold cloud tops 
near the center, some curved banding, and an impressive 
upper-level outflow in all quadrants but the northeast.  Subjective 
and objective Dvorak estimates hold the hurricane's current 
intensity at T4.5/75 kt, so the initial intensity will remain at 
75 kt for this advisory.

Blas is expected to strengthen further to a peak intensity of 85 kt 
in the next 24 h before entering a less favorable environment of 
increased easterly vertical shear and cooler waters.  The intensity 
forecast has changed little compared to the previous NHC 
prediction and remains near the higher end of the numerical 
guidance, with DSHIPS generally showing the most intensification of 
the models.

The initial motion of Blas is estimated to be 290/5 kt.  A 
well-established 500 mb ridge extending from the southern United 
States across Mexico and into the eastern North Pacific should 
continue to steer the tropical cyclone on a generally 
west-northwestward track for the next few days.  As Blas weakens in 
the latter part of the forecast period, it is expected to turn 
west-southwestward following the lower-level tradewind flow.  The 
track model guidance is in very good agreement throughout most of 
the forecast period with some differences in forward speed later in 
the period.  The official forecast remains close to the model 
consensus and very close to the previous NHC track forecast.

While Blas is expected to remain off the coast of Mexico, its
associated swells are beginning to affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico and are likely continue through the end
of the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 15.4N 103.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 15.8N 104.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 16.4N 106.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 17.1N 108.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  18/0000Z 17.7N 110.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  18/1200Z 18.2N 111.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  19/0000Z 18.6N 113.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  20/0000Z 18.8N 115.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  21/0000Z 18.3N 116.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci



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