305 WTPZ42 KNHC 151457 TCDEP2 Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Since the prior advisory, the structure of Blas has continued to improve on both conventional and microwave satellite imagery. In fact, several SSMIS microwave passes indicate that Blas is developing an inner core, with at least a banding mid-level eye feature showing up on the 89-GHz channel. The latest 1200 UTC subjective Dvorak estimates were T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and T4.0/65 kt from SAB. In addition, the most recent objective Dvorak estimates from UW-CIMSS have been quickly increasing with the latest estimate at T4.3/72 kt. A blend of the aforementioned data yields 65 kt for the advisory initial intensity, making Blas a hurricane. The center of Blas may have relocated a bit further south into the large overnight convective burst, but its mean motion this morning has continued a pronounced left turn, estimated at 290/4 kt. A continued west-northwest motion with some acceleration is anticipated over the next several days as the mid-level ridge poleward of the storm continues to build in and extend westward ahead of Blas. Towards the end of the forecast, Blas is expected to become a shallow system, resulting in a slowing westward motion as the low-level flow exerts greater influence. The latest forecast track has been adjusted a bit south in the short-term based on the adjusted initial position , but ends up just north of the previous forecast by the end of the period, close to the center of the track guidance envelope. The most recent microwave images suggest that Blas is developing an inner core, which would likely support further intensification today as the system remains over warm (28-29 C) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) embedded in sufficently high mid-level moisture. A possible complicating factor is that both the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance indicates easterly shear increasing to 20-25 kt over the next 24-36 h. Assuming this does not play a major inhibiting factor, the latest NHC forecast indicates continued intensification and peaks Blas as category 2 hurricane in 24 h. After 36 h, Blas will be crossing a sharp SST gradient, moving over sub 26 C waters by 60 h. For this reason, weakening is anticipated to begin by Friday. At the end of the forecast period, Blas is likely to lose its deep-convective activity and become a shallow low-level vortex. While Blas is expected to remain off the coast of Mexico, its associated swells are expected to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico beginning today and continuing through the end of the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 14.9N 102.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 15.3N 103.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 15.8N 104.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 16.5N 106.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 17.1N 108.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 18/0000Z 17.7N 110.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 18.2N 111.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 18.8N 114.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 19.0N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin