Hurricane Beryl Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT42 KNHC 051451
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

The center of Beryl made landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula of 
Mexico just northeast of Tulum at about 11Z. The landfall intensity 
is somewhat uncertain, but surface observations suggest the central 
pressure rose into the 977-980 mb range before landfall.  The 
cyclone is now weakening as it moves farther inland, and the 
initial intensity is reduced to 75 kt.

The initial motion is now 290/14 kt.  For the next 24 h or so, 
Beryl should be steered generally west-northwestward by the 
western portion of the subtropical ridge over the southeastern 
United States.  After that, a turn toward the northwest is likely 
as the storm moves towards a break in the ridge caused by a 
combination of a trough in the mid-latitude westerlies over the 
central United States and an upper-level trough moving westward 
over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.  This motion should bring the 
center near the western Gulf coast in about 72 h.  Subsequently, a 
northward motion through the break appears likely.  While the track 
guidance has come into better agreement, there is still uncertainty 
based on the possible strength and vertical depth of Beryl.  A 
stronger and vertically deeper cyclone would feel more steering 
from upper-level southwesterly flow caused by the Gulf trough, and 
thus would have a more northward motion, while a weaker system 
would probably continue more northwestward.  Overall the guidance 
favors the more northward motion and has shifted a little to the 
right, and the new official forecast also is nudged a little to the 
right of the previous forecast.  Additional adjustments of the 
forecast track could be necessary later today.

Beryl should continue to weaken while over land, and it is expected 
to emerge over the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm.  After that, 
it could take 12-24 h for the cyclone's structure to recover over 
the Gulf of Mexico before re-intensification can begin in earnest.  
Based on this and the overall trends of the intensity guidance, the 
new forecast calls for gradual strengthening to start after 24 h 
and continue until landfall.  One important note is that the GFS 
and ECMWF suggest that ongoing westerly shear could decrease after 
48-60 h, accompanied by an increase in upper-level divergence.  
Should this occur, Beryl could strengthen more than currently 
forecast, especially if the center stays over water longer than 
forecast.

Users are reminded that the average NHC track error at day 3 is
around 100 miles, and it remains too soon to pinpoint where the
greatest impacts will be. However, watches for portions of
northeastern Mexico and South Texas will likely be required later
today.


Key Messages:

1. Dangerous winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall will continue 
over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula within the warning areas 
today.  Residents there should shelter in place until these 
life-threatening conditions subside. 

2. There is an increasing risk of hurricane-force winds, 
life-threatening storm surge, and flooding from heavy rainfall in 
portions of northeastern Mexico and the lower and middle Texas coast
late Sunday and Monday. Interests in these areas should closely 
monitor updates to the forecast.  Storm Surge, Hurricane and 
Tropical Storm Watches will likely be issued later today.

3. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions 
beginning late today and continuing through the weekend across much 
of the Gulf coast. Beachgoers should heed warning flags and the 
advice of lifeguards and local officials before venturing into the 
water. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 20.7N  88.3W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
 12H  06/0000Z 21.4N  90.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
 24H  06/1200Z 22.5N  92.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 23.6N  94.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 24.6N  95.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  08/0000Z 25.6N  96.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 26.8N  97.5W   75 KT  85 MPH...NEAR COAST
 96H  09/1200Z 29.0N  98.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
120H  10/1200Z 31.0N  97.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven