Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Agatha Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ41 KNHC 300844
TCDEP1

Hurricane Agatha Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012022
400 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

Agatha's satellite presentation has remained fairly steady state 
since last evening.  The center is embedded beneath a compact 
central dense overcast, but there have been no microwave satellite 
passes overnight to provide a better view of the hurricane's 
structure.  Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are also steady, 
remaining at T5.0, so Agatha's initial intensity is being held at 
what the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter found yesterday--95 kt. 
A second and final Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for later 
this morning, assuming the center isn't too close to the coast and 
the plane can navigate a safe distance away from the nearby 
mountainous terrain.

We did receive two ASCAT passes a few hours ago, which indicated 
that tropical-storm-force winds have begun along the coast of 
Oaxaca.  The scatterometers also helped to refine Agatha's position, 
and the initial motion remains slowly northeastward, or 055/5 kt.  
This northeastward motion is expected to continue today, and 
Agatha's center should cross the coast of Oaxaca within the next 
12-18 hours.  The center, or Agatha's remnants, should then continue 
northeastward over the Isthmus of Tehuantepec.  There have been no 
notable shifts in the latest track guidance, thus the new NHC 
forecast is very similar to the previous one.

Agatha has another 12 hours or so to take advantage of warm 29 
degree Celsius waters.  However, the hurricane doesn't seem to have 
been able to benefit from the waters during the previous 12 hours, 
and it's not entirely clear if it will strengthen before landfall.  
One potential negative influence is the nearby coastal mountains of 
southern Mexico, which are likely to disrupt the low-level 
circulation of the relatively small hurricane.  Nearly all of the 
intensity models show Agatha weakening immediately, but the NHC 
forecast will maintain a steady intensity up until landfall, with 
rapid weakening occurring once Agatha makes landfall and moves over 
the rough terrain.  This forecast does not preclude the possibility 
of some intensification before landfall.  Dissipation of Agatha's 
surface circulation over southern Mexico is now expected by 48 
hours.


Key Messages:

1. Extremely dangerous coastal flooding from storm surge,
accompanied by large and destructive waves, is expected near and the
east of where Agatha makes landfall.

2. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions
of the hurricane warning area in Oaxaca, Mexico, starting midday 
and continuing through this evening.  Tropical storm conditions 
have already begun along the coast of Oaxaca and will spread 
eastward within the warning area through today and tonight.

3. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will continue over portions of 
southern Mexico through Tuesday.  This will pose a threat of 
potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0900Z 14.8N  97.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 15.4N  96.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  31/0600Z 16.3N  95.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 36H  31/1800Z 16.9N  94.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg



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