027 WTPZ41 KNHC 292039 TCDEP1 Hurricane Agatha Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022 400 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022 Satellite images indicate that Agatha continues to intensify at a rapid pace. The hurricane has a compact inner core and an eye feature has recently become apparent in geostationary satellite data. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were both 5.0/90 kt at 18Z. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating Agatha and so far found maximum flight-level winds of 107 kt at 700 mb and maximum SFMR winds of about 90 kt. Based on that data, the initial intensity is increased to 95 kt, which is just below major hurricane strength, and the minimum pressure is estimated to be 964 mb. The hurricane has not moved much during the past several hours, with the latest initial motion estimated to be a slow and erratic 045/1 kt. The models agree that a more steady northeastward motion should commence very soon, and that motion is expected to bring the core of Agatha to the coast of southern Mexico Monday afternoon or evening. The NHC track forecast has been shifted a little to the east of the previous one based on the more eastward initial position. Agatha has strengthened at an impressive rate of 45 kt over the past 24 hours, and it likely will intensify a little more as it is expected to remain in generally favorable conditions until it reaches the coast of Mexico. However, there is a chance of an eyewall replacement cycle that could cause the intensity of the hurricane to fluctuate. After landfall, rapid weakening is forecast and Agatha is expected to dissipate over the rugged terrain of southern Mexico on Tuesday. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and follows the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids through landfall. Key Messages: 1. Extremely dangerous coastal flooding from storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves is expected near and the east of where Agatha makes landfall. 2. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of the hurricane warning area in southern Mexico on Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning there tonight or early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area on Monday. 3. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will develop over portions of southern Mexico later today and continue through Tuesday. This will pose a threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 14.1N 98.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 14.5N 98.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 15.2N 97.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 16.0N 96.1W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 48H 31/1800Z 17.1N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi