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Earth’s 9th-warmest November on record » Yale Climate Connections

November 2022 was Earth’s ninth-warmest November since record-keeping began in 1880, and the coolest November since 2014, NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) reported November 14. NASA rated November as the 12th-warmest on record, 0.99 degrees Celsius (1.78°F) warmer than the 1880-1920 period – its best estimate for when preindustrial temperatures last occurred. The European Copernicus Climate Change Service rated November 2022 as the ninth-warmest November on record, and the Japan Meteorological Agency rated it the seventh warmest. Such minor differences in the agencies’ rankings can result from the different ways they treat data-sparse regions such as the Arctic.

Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for November 2022, the ninth-warmest November for the globe since record-keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA. Parts of northern Europe, southeastern Asia, southern South America, and northeastern and southeastern Oceania experienced record-warm temperatures for the month. No areas experienced record cold. (Image credit: NOAA/NCEI)

Land areas had their 17th-warmest November on record in 2022, and global ocean temperatures were the fifth-warmest on record, according to NOAA. Europe had its third-warmest November on record. South America, Asia, and Africa each had a November that ranked among their 20 warmest on record. North America had a warmer-than-average November, but it did not rank among its top 20 warmest on record. Oceania had a cooler-than-average November, the region’s coolest November since 1999.

The year-to-date global surface temperature is the sixth-highest on record, and 2022 is 99% likely to end up as the sixth-warmest year on record, according to NOAA. The year-to-date global surface temperature is the sixth-highest on record, and the year 2022 is over 99% likely to wind up as the sixth-warmest year on record, according to NOAA.

A near-average November for the U.S.

In the U.S., it was the 44th-coldest November since records began in 1895, which puts it in the near-average category, according to NOAA. Five western states reported a top-10 coldest November, and eight eastern states reported a top-10 warmest November on record. The month capped off what now ranks as the 24th-warmest fall (September-November) period in contiguous U.S. history; the year-to-date period of January-November has been the 17th-warmest on record.

November was near average for precipitation across the contiguous U.S., but the year-to-date period of January-November has been the 23rd-driest on record. As of December 6, 55.5% of the contiguous U.S. was experiencing moderate or greater drought, with drought coverage at 78.5% for abnormally dry or drier conditions – among the largest such areas since the U.S. Drought Monitor was established in 2000.

Figure 2. Departure of sea surface temperature from average in the benchmark Niño 3.4 region of the eastern tropical Pacific (5°N-5°S, 170°W-120°W). In this analysis, temperatures have ranged from 0.8 to 1.2 degree Celsius below average since mid-November. (Image credit: Tropical Tidbits)

An unusually long La Niña expected to end in early 2023

La Niña conditions continued during November and are expected to persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter (77% chance during December – February). Thereafter, a transition to neutral conditions is predicted (a 71% chance on neutral conditions in February – April 2023), NOAA reported in its December 8 monthly discussion of the state of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. The odds of El Niño conditions are no more than 8% through the Northern Hemisphere spring of 2023, increasing to 40% for the June – August period.

Over the past month, sea-surface temperatures in the benchmark Niño 3.4 region of the eastern tropical Pacific (5°N-5°S, 170°W-120°W) were 0.8 – 1.2 degree Celsius below average, as analyzed at The range for “weak” La Niña conditions is 0.5-1.0 degree Celsius below average; the range for “moderate” La Niña conditions is 1.0-1.5 degrees Celsius below average.

The third consecutive northern winter with La Niña, now under way, will be unusual but not unprecedented: Three-year La Niña sequences occurred in 1973-76 and 1998-2001. There have been no four-year La Niña sequences in NOAA data extending back to 1950 – or even in the longer Ensemble Oceanic NINO Index compiled by Eric Webb and extending back another century, to 1850 – although the NOAA data show La Niña was present in five out of six northern winters from 1970 to 1976.

The impact of the current La Niña event has been boosted by a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or PDO. The PDO is an index of sea-surface temperatures across the northeast and tropical Pacific Ocean that reflects some of the circulation aspects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The PDO can swing sharply from month-to-month, but usually it leans positive (warm) or negative (cool) for a few years at a time. Nearly every month since 2017 has had a negative PDO; November’s value was the second-lowest for any November since 1955, and the sixth-lowest November value in NOAA data going back to 1854. When the PDO is negative, La Niña’s impacts often are more pronounced.

Arctic sea ice: 8th-lowest November extent on record

Arctic sea ice extent during November 2022 was the eighth-lowest in the 44-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, NSIDC. According to the annual Arctic Report Card, issued this week (see Tweet above), the average surface air temperature over the Arctic for this past year (October 2021-September 2022) was the 6th warmest since 1900. The last seven years are collectively the warmest seven years on record. Arctic sea ice extent in 2022 and 2021 were similar, and well below the long-term average.

Antarctic sea ice extent in November was the fourth-lowest on record for November. Antarctic sea ice extent tended to increase slightly from the 1980s through the 2010s, but it has decreased notably from 2017 onward, whereas arctic sea ice extent has decreased more consistently and dramatically over the past 40 years.

Notable global heat and cold marks for November 2022

The information below is courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera. Follow him on Twitter: @extremetemps.

– Hottest November temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: 42.0°C (107.6°F) at Linguere, Senegal, November 7;
– Coldest November temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -50.9°C (-59.6°F) at Oymyakon, Russia, November 28;
– Hottest November temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 44.8°C (112.6°F) at Augrabies Falls, South Africa, November 29;
– Coldest November temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: -60.2°C (-76.4°F) at Jase 2007, Antarctica, November 4; also at Concordia, Antarctica, November 11;
– Highest 2022 average temperature to date (Jan.-Nov.) in the Southern Hemisphere: 29.4°C (84.9°F) at Surabya AP, Indonesia; and
– Highest 2022 average temperature to date (Jan.-Nov.) in the Northern Hemisphere: 32.3°C (90.1°F) at Makkah, Saudi Arabia.

Major weather stations in November: no all-time heat or cold records

Among global stations with a record of at least 40 years, none set (not just tied) an all-time heat or cold record in November.

10 all-time national/territorial heat records set or tied in 2022

No nations set or tied an all-time reliably measured national heat record in November. The total of such records is 10 in 2022 (plus one, if considering that Taiwan beat its all-time heat record in two separate months):

Paraguay:  45.6°C (114.1°F) at Sombrero Hovy, January 1;
Australia:  50.7°C (123.3°F) at Onslow AP, January 13 (tie);
Uruguay:  44.0°C (111.2°F) at Florida, January 14 (tie);
Vatican City: 40.8°C (105.4°F), June 28;
United Kingdom: 40.3°C (104.5°F) at Coningsby, July 19;
Jersey (UK dependency): 37.9°C (100.2°F) at Mason St. Louis, July 18;
Taiwan: 41.4°C (106.5°F) at Zhuoxi, July 22; beaten on August 21, with 41.6°C at Fuyuan;
Hong Kong: 39.0°C (102.2°F) at Sheng Shui, July 24 (tie); and
Dominica: 36.3°C (97.3°F) at Canefield, September 12; and
Barbados: 35.5°C (95.9°F) at Bridgetown, September (unspecified date).

In addition, all-time heat records were set in July for all three of the Great Britain countries that are part of the United Kingdom:

England:  40.3 °C (104.5 °F) at Coningsby, July 19;
Wales:  37.1 °C (98.8 °F) at Hawarden, July 18; and
Scotland:  34.8 °C (94.6 °F) at Charterhall, July 19.

Two all-time national/territorial cold records set or tied in 2022

As of the end of November, two nations or territories had set or tied an all-time national cold record:

Montenegro: -33.4°C (-28.1°F) at Kosanica, January 25; and
Myanmar: -6.0°C (21.2°F) at Hakha, January 29 (tie).

67 additional monthly national/territorial heat records beaten or tied as of the end of November

In addition to the 10 all-time national/territorial records listed above (plus the double record set in Taiwan), 67 nations or territories have set monthly all-time heat records in 2022, for a total of 78 monthly all-time records:

– January (11): Mexico, USA, Croatia, Liechtenstein, Moldova, Comoros, Mayotte, Maldives, Dominica, Equatorial Guinea, Montenegro;
– February (2): Papua New Guinea, Pakistan;
– March (3): Myanmar, Pakistan, Mauritius;
– April (3): British Indian Ocean Territories, Hong Kong, Chad;
– May (6): Chad, Morocco, Liechtenstein, Andorra, Vatican City, Mauritius;
– June (13): Saba, Jersey, Switzerland, Poland, Czech Republic, Japan, Tunisia, Slovenia, Croatia, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Slovakia;
– July (7): New Caledonia, Andorra, Portugal, Ireland, Denmark, Paraguay, Taiwan;
– August (6): Cocos Islands, Iran, Qatar, Ireland, Saba, Saint Barthélemy;
– September (3): Georgia, Myanmar, Hong Kong;
– October (4): China, South Korea, North Korea, Eswatini; and
– November (9): Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Kuwait, Cote d’ Ivoire, Qatar, Dominica, Cocos Islands, Northern Mariana Islands.

Nine additional monthly national/territorial cold records beaten or tied as of the end of November

In addition to the two all-time national/territorial records listed above, nine nations or territories have set monthly all-time cold records in 2022, for a total of 11 monthly all-time records:

– March (2): Montenegro and Cyprus;
– April (2): Andorra, Laos;
– May (2): Vietnam, Thailand;
– July (1): Montenegro;
– September (1): Greece; and
– October (1): Paraguay.

Hemispherical and continental temperature records in 2022

– Highest temperature ever recorded in January in North America: 41.7°C (107.1°F) at Gallinas, Mexico, January 1;

– Highest temperature ever recorded in the Southern Hemisphere (tie) and world record for highest temperature ever recorded in January: 50.7°C (123.3°F) at Onslow AP, Australia, January 13;

– Highest minimum temperature ever recorded in South America: 32.2°C (90.0°F) at Pampa del Infierno, Argentina, January 17;

– Highest minimum temperature ever recorded in January in the Northern Hemisphere: 29.3°C (84.7°F) at Kenieba, Mali, on January 15 (and again on January 30); and

– Highest temperature ever recorded in August in Asia: 53.6°C (128.5°F) at Shush, Iran, on August 9.

Bob Henson contributed to this post.

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