At a Republican presidential debate in 2023, several candidates articulated a common sentiment about whose climate policies really matter.
“If you want to go and really change the environment, then we need to start telling China and India that they have to lower their emissions,” said Nikki Haley, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and ultimate runner-up to Donald Trump in the Republican presidential primary race. “We also need to take on the international world and say, ‘OK, India and China, you’ve got to stop polluting.’”
Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina agreed, saying, “The places where they are continuing to increase [climate pollution] – Africa, 950 million people; India, over a billion; China, over a billion.”
It’s true that China and India are each home to just over 1.4 billion people. Both have rapidly growing economies that largely depend on fossil fuel energy. China is responsible for about one-quarter of annual climate-warming pollution, and together with India, the two countries account for one-third of yearly global emissions (the U.S. accounts for about 11%).
Given the size of the economies of China and India, it’s understandable to wonder if the climate actions of smaller countries matter. But they do, for several reasons: because the Chinese and Indian governments are making great efforts to deploy climate solutions; because China and India are responsible for much lower per-person and historical climate pollution than many other countries; and crucially, because the climate crisis can only be averted if every country does its part.
China wants to dominate the renewable age
Not only is China taking dramatic steps to transition to a green economy, the country’s leaders view this shift as an opportunity to overtake the United States as the world’s economic superpower.
China accounts for less than 18% of the global population but in 2023 installed 70% of the world’s added wind power capacity, 42% of all solar panels, 32% of all heat pumps, and accounted for 57% of all electric vehicle sales. China is also forecast to account for 44% of the world’s added nuclear power capacity by 2030.
China installed more solar panels in 2023 than the United States has in its entire history. It accounts for almost 60% of new renewable capacity expected to become operational globally over the next five years, and almost two-thirds of global wind and solar projects under construction today are in China. As a result, Chinese climate pollution appears to have now peaked and is poised to decline.
A recent report by energy think tank RMI put this shift into historical perspective. It noted that in the 20th century, the United States led the transitions to the ages of steel and electricity, oil and mass manufacturing, and information technologies. The next transition will be to the age of renewable energy, efficiency, and electrification. But this time, China is poised to lead the new economy.
And though India isn’t yet transitioning to a green economy as quickly as China, its government nevertheless recognizes the importance of doing so and has been deploying solar power infrastructure at a rapid clip.
Read: Why India is key to heading off climate catastrophe
Which countries are responsible for climate change?
The countries with the biggest economies like the United States and those in Europe became wealthy by exploiting artificially cheap fossil fuels for over a century – at the expense of the global climate.
In terms of cumulative historical climate pollution, the United States is responsible for 1.6 times more than China and seven times more than India despite having one-quarter the population of each country. In terms of per-person climate pollution, the average American today generates 1.8 times more than the average person in China and six times more than the average Indian.
It doesn’t make sense for people living in countries that are responsible for more historical climate pollution and more per-person fossil fuel consumption today to point fingers at China or India. In fact, the climate crisis won’t be solved unless every country takes action to address it.
Climate change is a collective action problem
In a 1968 paper in Science, ecologist Garrett Hardin introduced the concept of the tragedy of the commons: “Picture a pasture open to all,” he wrote. “It is to be expected that each herdsman will try to keep as many cattle as possible in the commons. The rational herdsman concludes that the only sensible course for him to pursue is to add another animal to his herd. And another; and another. But this conclusion is reached by each and every rational herdsman sharing a commons. Therein is the tragedy. Each man is locked into a system that compels him to increase his herd without limit – in a world that is limited.”
Eventually, the pasture becomes overgrazed, and everyone suffers from having overused the shared resource. Hardin also argued that the same principle applies to pollution.
The solution to the tragedy of the commons is for everyone using the resource to agree to do so in a sustainable way – and as political scientist Elinor Ostrom found, people can and do share resources cooperatively.
That’s why the Paris Climate Agreement – in which nearly every world country agreed to reduce their climate pollution in an effort to limit global warming to a manageable level – were so critically important. Everyone’s emissions matter. But India and especially China are taking significant steps to address theirs, despite lower per-person and historical climate pollution than most wealthy countries are responsible for.
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