000 WTPZ41 KNHC 132036 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Pamela Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 400 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021 As Pamela has moved further inland over the high, rugged terrain of west-central Mexico, its satellite structure has deteriorated markedly. Inland surface observations also suggest that the system's low-level circulation is becoming ill-defined. Following the typical rapid rate of decay of tropical cyclones over this portion of Mexico, the maximum sustained winds are quickly lowering, now estimated at 30 kt this advisory, making Pamela a tropical depression. The estimated motion continues to accelerate, now at 045/24 kt. This motion and heading should continue until the system dissipates over the higher terrain of Central Mexico this evening. A 12 hour point in this forecast has been provided for continuity purposes though the surface center will likely dissipate beforehand. This track also represents where the remnant mid-level vorticity maximum of Pamela will continue to propagate northeastward. This feature is also associated with a deep-layer moisture plume that is expected to contribute to heavy rainfall and flooding impacts over the south-central United States. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rains and the threat of flash flooding associated with Pamela will be diminishing through tonight over Mexico. 2. Heavy rains associated with the remnants of Pamela are expected across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma through Thursday. This may result in considerable flash and urban flooding impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 26.0N 103.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 14/0600Z 28.6N 100.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Papin