Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 47

   Mesoscale Discussion 0047
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0545 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

   Areas affected...Portions of the southern Appalachians

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 242345Z - 250445Z

   SUMMARY...A wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain is expected to
   slowly spread north and east over the next 3-5 hours across portions
   of the southern Appalachians. Areas currently observing snow will
   likely see a transition to sleet/freezing rain during this period.
   Freezing rain rates of 0.05 to 0.1 inch/hour appear possible.

   DISCUSSION...Recent RAP/HRRR solutions appear to be capturing
   ongoing precipitation-type trends well per latest ASOS/AWOS
   observations and mPING reports. Surface observations also depict a
   trough axis extending from southwest AL into the southern
   Appalachians where surface pressure falls on the order of
   approximately 1 mb/hour have been noted since 18 UTC. As broad-scale
   ascent continues to increase with the gradual approach of the upper
   wave to the west, further intensification of the surface trough
   across the Southeast and lee of the southern Appalachians is
   expected with a slight augmentation of southerly low-level winds and
   warm air advection. This will shift the low-level freezing line
   northward over the next several hours, resulting in a transition
   from predominantly snow to a mixture of freezing rain and sleet (and
   potentially to rain if surface temperatures can sufficiently warm).
   Additionally, as low-level ascent spreads east/northeast, freezing
   rain/sleet should become more widespread across portions of the
   western Carolinas and into parts of VA - especially as low-level
   saturation is achieved later this evening. Latest forecast guidance
   continues to suggest that freezing rain rates upwards of 0.05 to 0.1
   inch/hour will be possible.

   ..Moore.. 01/24/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...
   OHX...

   LAT...LON   35968364 35848447 35848534 36048575 36278604 36598610
               36788603 37178545 37808395 37998272 37958136 37858062
               37467986 37017942 36367926 36017933 35767940 35337952
               35067980 34888025 34878078 34998133 35288162 35578206
               35858246 35988299 35968364