Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 20

   Mesoscale Discussion 0020
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0921 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of southern/central AL into far western GA

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 3...

   Valid 101521Z - 101645Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 3 continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk of damaging winds and a brief tornado continues
   across Tornado Watch 03 this morning. A downstream watch is not
   currently anticipated, though convective and environmental trends
   are being monitored.

   DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from KBMX/KMXX depicts a
   northeast/southwest-oriented QLCS tracking eastward across central
   and eastern AL. The primary severe risk associated with this
   activity should remain focused along north/south-oriented parts of
   the line (i.e., just west of the KMXX radar) -- where around 50 kt
   of line-orthogonal 0-6 km shear (per KMXX VWP) is favoring more
   intense updrafts keeping pace with the larger-scale cold pool. Here,
   moist inflow (upper 60s dewpoints) and ample low-level hodograph
   size/curvature (around 270 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per KMXX VWP) will
   continue to support embedded mesovortex/supercell structures and an
   attendant risk for damaging gusts and a brief tornado or two.
   The northern portion of the QLCS moving into west-central GA is also
   taking on a more north/south orientation, and this area may also be
   locally favorable for damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado in
   the near term. 

   However, as the QLCS approaches the eastern edge of Tornado Watch
   03, buoyancy becomes quite limited, and current expectation is for
   convection to gradually weaken with northward and eastward extent.
   Therefore, a downstream watch is not currently expected, though
   convective and environmental trends are being monitored.

   ..Weinman/Smith.. 01/10/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   32068715 32628648 33458558 33828509 33858478 33688457
               33278464 32918495 32568515 32158561 32018590 31828639
               31738690 31808710 32068715 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH